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2024 IIHF World Junior Championship

2024 World Juniors Tournament Preview, Medal Predictions And MVP Candidates

2024 World Juniors Tournament Preview, Medal Predictions And MVP Candidates

Will Team USA win gold? Is Canada really the underdog? Chris Peters answers burning WJC questions heading into the tournament.

Dec 24, 2023 by Chris Peters
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The 2024 IIHF World Junior Championship is setting up to be an absolute barn burner of a tournament. There’s a wide-open feel to the competitiveness with as many as five, possibly even six teams entering feeling like they have a chance to win the whole thing.

Canada will enter as the two-time defending gold medalist, but will have only one player with any prior World Junior experience at their disposal – Owen Beck (MTL), who played in three games last year.

Host Sweden will have a chip on their shoulder after failing to medal last year, but will return as many as seven players from last year’s team including Filip Bystedt (SJS), who was tied for the team lead in scoring last year.

Meanwhile, the United States very well could be the odds-on favorite to win it all with seven returning players and a bevy of new faces with no shortage of international success. On paper, they’re certainly the deepest team in the tournament and will have a little extra motivation coming in as its 2004 birth year is still seeking its first IIHF gold medal after falling short at previous international tournaments.

To help get you ready for the tournament, veteran World Junior analyst Chris Peters answers some of the burning questions heading into the tournament and offers predictions on the medals, the MVP and much more.

Why Team USA Is The Favorite To Win The Gold Medal

With seven returning players and eight first-round draft picks among the team’s top nine forwards, the expectation is that USA is going to score. They also have the best goaltending depth in the tournament with returnee Trey Augustine (DET) and Jacob Fowler (MTL) both expected to play games over the course of the tournament as USA works out its No. 1 goalie situation.

The Americans also have a highly-mobile, offensive-minded blue line led by Lane Hutson (MTL) that will be expected to help maintain a significant possession edge and get pucks into the hands of a forward group that includes elite scorers like Cutter Gauthier (PHI), Will Smith (SJS), Ryan Leonard (WSH) and Jimmy Snuggerud (STL), just to name a few.

When USA has had success at this tournament, they’ve been great on the power play and they’ve gotten the goaltending. They should have some of the best numbers from both based on what we’ve seen so far.

Since I cover USA so closely on a year-to-year basis, I often have a hard time picking them because I probably pick them apart more than anyone. This year’s team however has one perceived weakness, which is its lack of size on defense. They shouldn’t lack for goals and they should have goaltending on their side. That’s why Team USA is my pick to win the tournament.

Why Canada Is Not The Betting Favorite To Win Gold

Canada has a good roster. They’ve got a lot of great players and they’ve got the projected No. 1 pick for the 2024 NHL Draft on their roster in Macklin Celebrini. What Canada does not have, however, is experience. They return just one player from last year’s gold medal team and will be missing several players that are currently NHL rookies.

Additionally, Hockey Canada announced just before the tournament that Tristan Luneau (ANA) and Tanner Molendyk (NSH), two of the team's top defensemen, will be unavailable for the tournament due to health reasons. They've been replaced by Jorian Donovan (OTT) and Ty Nelson (SEA).

Though Canada was loaned Matt Poitras from the Boston Bruins which helps, they still don’t have the same kind of depth that USA or perhaps even Sweden can boast up and down their lineup.

Another big question is if Canada has a goalie that can help them win gold. There is not a great book on any of their three goalies, only one of whom has been drafted. Those concerns are hard to overlook. Mathis Rousseau appears likely to be the starter, but shaky pre-tournament play has dinged that assertion some.

Even with that in mind, picking against Canada is always a dangerous endeavor because they always seem to find a way in this tournament. This is the one year they can say they have doubters and not be accused of using false motivational tactics. They’re legit underdogs here and Canada with an underdog mentality is always dangerous.

How Sweden Can Win Gold

The relative lack of success at the World Juniors for Sweden is perhaps one of the great international hockey mysteries of the last 20 years. The Swedes have just two gold medals at this even and none since 2012 when Mika Zibanejad scored an OT game-winner against Russia.

The last one before that was in 1981 when Sweden became the first non-Soviet team to win gold at this tournament, which became an officially recognized IIHF World Championship in 1977.

Now the Swedes have home ice. They also have the experience and the talent. With six returnees, seven first-round NHL Draft picks and a pair of age groups that have been among the class teams internationally these last few years, there’s real reason to hope.

The chance to play in front of a favorable crowd helps, but having had appeared in each of the last two gold-medal games at the World Under-18s and playing in last year’s WJC bronze-medal game, gives this group a lot of confidence as well.

Sweden has one of the better blue lines led by returnee Axel Sandin Pellikka (DET), who is in the midst of a breakout year in Sweden’s top pro league. They’ll also get some solid defending out of big Elias Salomonsson (WPG) and Tom Willander (VAN), who was picked 11th overall in the last NHL Draft.

Up front, Sweden boasts a ton of talent including Bystedt who had 10 points last year, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN) who has been on fire since the postseason at the end of the 2022-23 campaign.

There’s also a chance Sweden has one of the more under-the-radar goalies in Hugo Havelid, who has shined on the big international stage in his young career despite being undersized for a goalie and undrafted into the NHL. Though Havelid hasn't put up great numbers in club play the last two years, he had a good showing with the Swedish U20 group in international tuneup tournaments this year.

Who Is The Dark Horse Team For The 2024 World Juniors?

Slovakia is my dark horse gold medal threat. I think USA, Canada and Sweden are the three best teams in this tournament on paper, but I don’t think the gap between them and Slovakia is terribly wide.

The Slovaks took Canada to the brink last year, ultimately falling to the hosts in overtime in the quarterfinal. Goalie Adam Gajan (CHI) was the star of that game and the star of Slovakia’s tournament. Now they get him back while he’s been playing well in the USHL with the Green Bay Gamblers. He can be the X-factor this team needs to push the top teams.

Beyond having the goaltending, Slovakia also has a forward group that will give them a chance with a staggering 11 returnees up front. Led by first-rounders Samuel Honzek (CGY), Dalibor Dvorsky (STL) and Filip Mesar (MTL), this is a team that should challenge any opponent, capitalizing on mistakes and pushing the pace a bit themselves. After seeing Czechia nearly take gold from Canada last year, Slovakia looks like it can actually push for a team outside of the Big Four to do it again.

If there is a question mark for this team, it’s the defense. They will not get Simon Nemec from the New Jersey Devils, which is a big blow. It puts more pressure on 18-year-old returnee Maxim Strbak (BUF), who has played well for Michigan State and was a standout performer last year.

Slovakia is very much a team to watch in this event.

What should we expect from Finland at the WJC?

The Finns are always an interesting watch at this tournament. They’ve had some incredible showings over the years and some pretty dreadful ones in recent memory even when they had the talent. This year, there’s a lot of question marks with that team.

Finland has some quality up front in their forward group, but arguably the best player in the age group will not be joining the team in Sweden. Joakim Kemell (NSH) is currently with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL and he is not coming to Sweden. That means Finland is without its best goal-scoring threat.

They’re not devoid of talent, however. Lenni Hameenaho (NJD) is a player to watch for them, and they’ve got some big forwards up front. They’ve also got a young budding star in Konsta Helenius, who is looking poised to go early in the 2024 NHL Draft. Finland also boasts some serious size up front.

In addition to some good forwards, Finland should have quality goaltending, but there are some real questions about their blue line. They’re without key player in the age group Aron Kiviharju (2024), who is injured. As a result, the Finns are a bit vanilla on the back end.

That said, Finland's hallmark has always been strong team defense with all five players on the ice contributing in their own end. It doesn't always lead to the most exciting brand of hockey, but it does give them a chance in a lot of games.

Projecting World Juniors MVP Candidates

The field for this year's MVP, as it is every year, is pretty loaded, so it is going to be tough to predict. A couple of things to note, the tournament MVP is voted on by the media. If the host team has success, there’s often going to be a lean towards players for the host team for that award. So here are a few players I think have a legit shot at it.

Cutter Gauthier, C, USA (PHI)

USA’s No. 1 center and an elite scorer, Gauthier will be given every opportunity to play a big role for the U.S. He had 10 points at the last WJC and then scored seven goals in 10 games at the Men’s World Championship in the spring. He has 13 goals so far this season at Boston College through 17 games.

Jiri Kulich, C/W, Czechia (BUF)

I don’t know how deep into the tournament the Czechs will play, but if they’re going anywhere, Jiri Kulich is taking them. Nearly a point-per-game player in the AHL this season, Kulich is a legit goal-scoring threat and he’s going to play a mountain of minutes for Czechia. I would not be shocked to see him atop the WJC scoring leaderboard.

Macklin Celebrini, C, Canada (2024)

Celebrini is the most talented player on Canada’s roster and will be given a large role right off the bat. He’s an offensive driver who should thrive in this environment as Celebrini seems to always elevate his game when his team needs him. Canada needs him to be one of their go-to guys this tournament.

Lane Hutson, D, USA (MTL)

Team USA’s No. 1 defenseman has been a dynamo wherever he’s been. He’s among the most dynamic puck handlers in this tournament and will be responsible for getting the pucks in the hands of USA’s dominant forward group. Like Gauthier, he played in the men’s World Championship last year and managed to produce there. This season, he has 20 points in 15 games including eight goals. If he produces like I think he can, he’ll win a lot of fans.

Axel Sandin Pellikka, D, Sweden (DET)

Swedes love their mobile, productive blueliners and if ASP plays the kind of minutes I think he will, he’s going to have a chance to produce at a fairly high rate. With nine goals and 13 points in 25 SHL games this season, he’s having a phenomenal year. As a returning player, one that can impact the game in a variety of ways, he'll have so many eyes on him. The expectations are astronomically high for Sandin Pellikka based on his hot start to the season and how quickly he ascended to Sweden's No. 1 D position last year as an underager.

Dalibor Dvorsky, C, Slovakia (STL)

Already a veteran of two previous World Juniors, Dvorsky enters this year with elevated expectations. He was dominant at the 2023 World Men’s Under-18 Championship where he had 13 points in seven games. He’s going to play a ton for Slovakia and if they make the kind of noise I think they’re capable of, he’s going to be in the middle of it.

Hugo Havelid, G, Sweden

Here’s one off the beaten path. A 5-foot-10 goalie with below-average numbers this season, I’ve seen Havelid internationally enough to know that when he’s on his game, he can look like he’s 10 feet tall. Leading Sweden to gold in the 2022 World Men’s Under-18 Championship with one of the best individual performances we’ve seen, he has a good chance at the net this year as he’s been excellent in Swedish U20 events this year. I think Sweden can win it all on home ice, but only if their goaltending is at a high level.

Which Team Will Be Relegated?

There is a fairly clear delineation between the haves and have nots at the World Juniors. This year, it’s a little fuzzier, but I think there are three teams that are legitimately at risk for relegation. If you don’t know, the bottom teams in each of the groups go to a best-of-three relegation round to see which of them gets to stay up. The loser goes back to Division 1A.

The Norwegians are back in the top level after earning promotion out of Division 1A last year, but they’re going to be in tough to stay up. They do have a high-end talent in Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, which can help in tight games, but I don’t know if that’s enough.

Germany has some quality players, too, but there are concerns about their blue line and goaltending that puts them at risk.

You may be surprised to see Switzerland here, but it has been a noticeable downward trend for the Swiss internationally. They have teams that can compete and they stayed up last year, but there may be a larger-than-normal talent gap for the Swiss. They have just one drafted player on their roster.

I'm glad to see Norway get their chance at the top level this year, but I think they're going to have a tough time staying up. 

Kazakhstan won the Division 1A tournament this year to earn promotion for the 2025 World Juniors.

World Junior Championship Medal Predictions

Gold: USA

The forward depth and goaltending are big separators for me. I think this team is going to score and potentially score a lot. They've got two No. 1 power play units practically and they're quick. They're also especially motivated with this being the last chance for the 2004 birth year to grab the elusive gold as an age group.

Silver: Sweden

Home ice advantage helps, but I also think Sweden has some of the best balance in their lineup of any team with size, skill, speed and more. They have the best D corps in the tournament and if they get the goaltending they'll be tough. Whoever wins Group A this tournament has a very clear path to the gold-medal game.

Bronze: Slovakia

Bold prediction time... This Slovak team is really talented and has plenty of belief. They've got so many returning players and so much talent up front that I think they can hang with the big teams. This pick is very much contingent on their goaltending as I believe Adam Gajan can be the difference. 

Fourth: Canada

Concerns about their goaltending and the recent losses on the blue line are mounting concerns for Canada. Even with that, they're no worse than third best on paper. And I do think Macklin Celebrini is going to have a massive tournament. Canada is very, very difficult to pick against, but they look a little more vulnerable this year.

World Juniors Stream In 2023-2024

The World Juniors Championships are streaming on the IIHF YouTube Channel in some countries and will air on the NHL Network in the United States. Select games will be available on ESPN+.

World Juniors Hockey On TSN In Canada

In Canada, the event will be televised on TSN and streamed. The tournament will also be streamed on TSN's digital platforms.

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