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NHL Draft Lottery: Who Has the Best Chance at the No. 1 Overall Pick?

NHL Draft Lottery: Who Has the Best Chance at the No. 1 Overall Pick?

Which teams would be winning out in the NHL Draft Lottery if their records were locked in today, just over a month into the 2024-25 season? We took a look.

Nov 15, 2024 by Andy Schamma
NHL Draft Lottery: Who Has the Best Chance at the No. 1 Overall Pick?

The NHL Draft Lottery gives fans of teams unable to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs something to look forward to a chance at the top draft picks in the first round of the draft like recent top picks Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Juraj Slafkovsky.

FloHockey has you covered with comprehensive 2025 NHL Draft coverage. From elite junior hockey to in-depth draft analysis, follow the top 2025 NHL Draft eligible players week-in and week-out.

Here's where teams would fall in the NHL Draft Lottery if their Win-Loss records were locked in today, just over one month into the 2024-25 season.

NHL Draft Lottery

Place. Team, Record, Points, %, Odds for #1 Pick

  1. Montreal, 5-10-2, 12, .353, 18.5%
  2. San Jose, 5-10-3, 13, .361, 13.5%
  3. Nashville, 5-9-3, 13, .382, 11.5%
  4. Chicago, 6-10-1, 13, .382, 9.5%
  5. Anaheim, 5-8-2, 12, .400, 8.5%
  6. Columbus, 5-8-2, 12, .400, 7.5%
  7. Pittsburgh, 6-9-3, 15, .417, 6.5%
  8. St. Louis, 7-9-1, 15, .441, 6.0%
  9. Philadelphia, 7-8-2, 16, .471, 5.0%
  10. Seattle, 8-8-1, 17, .500, 3.5%
  11. Boston, 8-8-2, 18, .500, 3.0%
  12. Detroit, 7-7-1, 15, .500, 2.5%
  13. Buffalo, 8-8-1, 17, .500, 2.0%
  14. NY Islanders, 7-6-4, 18, .529, 1.5%
  15. Colorado (PHI), 9-8-0, 18, .529, 0.5%
  16. Utah, 7-6-3, 17, .531, 0.5%

How does the NHL Draft Lottery work?

The NHL draft lottery provides non-playoff teams with the chance at a first overall draft pick. The concept of the lottery draft reduces the chance for teams to not play their best or purposely ice a less competitive line-up in order to confirm a top prospect pick.

It also adds excitement for viewers when their team is losing more than they're winning with the understanding that they likely won't make the Stanley Cup Playoffs when there are exciting prospects like recent top picks Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Juraj Slafkovsky.

Key Takeaways:

  • 2024 Draft Lottery: The first 16 spots in the first round are determined through the lottery.
  • Eligibility: Only the top 11 teams (based on regular season performance) are eligible for the #1 pick.
  • Lottery Mechanics: A machine randomly selects 4 balls numbered from 1 to 14, and those combinations determine the draft order.
  • Restrictions: A team can only win the lottery twice in a five-year period to prevent excessive luck stacking.

From NHL.com: 

In 2024, the first 16 picks in the first round of the draft are selected by the draft lottery. It consisted of two drawings, with limits on both the number of selections the 32nd-ranked club from the regular season could fall in the draft order (no lower than third overall) and the number of selections a club could "move up" (10). Thus, only the top 11 seeds in the Draft Lottery were eligible to receive the first overall selection in the 2024 NHL Draft.

The 2024 NHL Draft Lottery marked the third year for the implementation of a limit on how many times a team can win a lottery draw. No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period. This limitation will not affect a club’s ability to retain its presumptive draft position in any Draft Lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the club moving down in draft order to the extent other clubs advance by reason of winning the Lottery Draws. For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick. An example is outlined here.

Participants included all teams that did not qualify for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (or the teams that acquired the first-round drafting positions of those non-playoff teams).

The 14 teams not selected in the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery were assigned the remaining draft selections (among 1 through 16 in the first round), in inverse order of regular-season points.

Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, were placed in a lottery machine. The machine randomly expelled four balls. The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) was matched against a chart that showed all possible combinations and the clubs to which each was assigned.

When is the 2025 NHL Draft?

The next NHL Draft will take place after the conclusion of the 2024-25 season in June.

Who are the top 2025 NHL Draft prospects?

NHL teams have been watching junior hockey and collegiate leagues across the world to find the best up and coming players to add to their development programs with the hopes of eventually adding them to their roster. Here are some of the top ranked draft eligible players to keep an eye on:

  • James Hagens ( C ) - Boston College, NCAA
  • Porter Martone (RW) - Brampton, OHL
  • Anton Frondell ( C ) - Djurgårdens IF, J20
  • Matthew Schaefer (D) - Erie, OHL
  • Michael Misa (C/LW) - Saginaw, OHL
  • Roger McQueen (F) - Brandon, WHL
  • Ivan Ryabkin ( C ) - MHK Dynamo Moskva, MHL
  • Logan Hensler (D) - Wisconsin, NCAA
  • Malcolm Spence (LW) - Erie, OHL
  • Caleb Desnoyers ( C ) - Moncton, QMJHL
  • Charlie Trethewey (D) - USNTDP, USHL
  • William Moore ( C ) - USNTDP, USHL
  • Cole Reschny (F) - Victoria, WHL
  • Radim Mrtka (D) - HC Oceláři Třinec, Czech
  • Jakob Ihs-Wozniak (F) - Luleå HF, J20

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